The Australian tourism industry was negatively affected by the Global Financial Crisis in late 2008 and through 2009. It was expected that international arrivals to Australia would slow; however, Australia has been one of the better performing international tourism destinations supported by an increase in international aviation capacity and a favourable exchange rate in early 2009.

The Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC) releases two forecasts per year. The second issue for 2009 was released on 30 December 2009, and provides forecasts for 2009 through to 2018. (Actual International and National Visitor Survey figures for year ending 2009 will be released in March 2010).

It was expected that Australians would trade down from international travel to domestic travel in light of an unstable economy; however the opposite occurred and domestic tourism continued its poor performance due to strong growth in outbound travel as a result of the heavy discounting of international airfares.

While forecasts for domestic and international visitation are significantly different for 2009 & 2010 (compared to Issue 1 June forecast), predictions for the ten year outlook is broadly similar to the previous forecast. Tourism Victoria remains focused on its current strategies to realise growth potential from international markets.